The Houthis are preparing to march on Riyadh while the Revolutionary Guards are driving America out of every continent.
The conflict-ridden configuration of the Middle East presents us with a multitude of actors acting on behalf of two historically opposed worldviews that have divided international relations since 1945. On one side, there is Iran and the axis of resistance (the Houthis of Yemen, Hamas of Palestine, Hezbollah of Lebanon, etc.) who are working together to remove America from the region’s security architecture and who, de facto, are supported by the Eastern powers (China, Russia, North Korea). On the other side, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, all of whom host American bases and conceal their subservience to Israel, are maneuvering to maintain America’s security umbrella and who, in turn, are supported by the United States, the EU, and the Western world as a whole.
This is therefore clearly a manifestation of the doctrine of proxy warfare, fueled by the logic of escalation and the mutual perception of threat that has divided East/West relations since the end of the Second World War.
This February marks the definitive and irreversible rupture of contemporary global geopolitics. The Middle East is no longer a peripheral regional crisis or a mere theater of local identity tensions. It now asserts itself as the absolute tectonic epicenter, reorganizing and structuring the entirety of international power relations. The illusion of American hyperpower is collapsing before our eyes with striking brutality. The theoretical security certainties of Washington, Tel Aviv, and Riyadh are dissipating in irreversible doctrinal chaos. The asymmetric resistance orchestrated by the Axis of Resistance is entirely redefining the universal grammar of modern military power. The hasty and disorderly repositioning of American military equipment from its historical bases in the Middle East and Europe to other distant destinations reflects no subtle or prescient tactical maneuver. It lamentably signals a forced strategic retreat and absolute decline. The West as a whole is suffering a systemic humiliation of unprecedented proportions. Iran and its regional allies are succeeding brilliantly and are now imposing their own political rhythm, forcing the once-great world power to gradually abandon its hegemonic postures and its claims of lasting global control.
The Yemeni trap and the collapse of the Riyadh-Tel Aviv axis
As October drew to a close, the Yemeni front had definitively shattered the Western dogma of absolute technological superiority, behind which Saudi Arabia had been hiding. The Ansarallah movement was no longer content with simply blocking the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait or hindering international maritime trade. The Houthis now directly threatened Riyadh with a decisive advance, rendering the historical security guarantees granted by Washington obsolete and meaningless. Saudi Arabia watched in stunned disbelief as its purchases of complex Western weaponry proved operationally useless. Its vital oil infrastructure remained vulnerable to massive saturation strikes conducted by inexpensive, autonomous platforms. Bilateral alliances no longer protected the Gulf monarchies. Tripartite pacts, like the “Mecca” pact between Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, are nothing but false illusions of security, despite Pakistan’s feigned support to prevent the Houthi war machine from advancing on Riyadh. Saudi diplomacy tragically oscillates between contained panic and imperial tactical capitulation. Simultaneously, Israel faces strategic and diplomatic isolation unprecedented in its history. The Israeli army is suffering constant and devastating attrition on several simultaneous fronts. Tel Aviv’s missile shield is failing against swarms of saturation drones and next-generation hypersonic missiles. The doctrine of a short and victorious war has effectively collapsed. Tel Aviv is inexorably sinking into a major existential impasse, abandoned by an American protector now incapable of maintaining its own strategic military presence.
The naval dominance of the Pasdaran and the forced retreat of Washington
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is implementing a strategy of access denial and area denial with masterful rigor. The imposing American carrier strike groups no longer protect international maritime spaces. They have been transformed into vulnerable and slow-moving targets. The gradual and humiliating withdrawal of US naval squadrons from the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Eastern Mediterranean demonstrates the resounding failure of traditional gunboat diplomacy. This maritime rout is not limited to the borders of the Middle East. Its repercussions immediately destabilize the overall European security architecture. Washington is urgently redeploying its Patriot and THAAD air defense batteries from Europe (see Fairford ) to fallback positions, brutally exposing the eastern flank of the Atlantic Alliance. Europe is discovering its complete strategic vulnerability. It is realizing that the American security umbrella was nothing more than an imaginary and ephemeral construct. The Pasdaran have accomplished a historic feat: gradually driving out American military influence from the Middle East while weakening its strategic presence on the European continent.
Already, from the Middle East to Europe, American soldiers are packing up and bases are closing one after another for fear of Iranian terror. Attention is also turning to Africa, particularly to the countries hosting American bases. Djibouti, in particular, could be exposed to the wrath of the Revolutionary Guards if an American aircraft takes off from there to carry out even a single strike against Iran. Egypt , claiming to be an ally of Saudi Arabia while concealing its subservience to Zionist Israel, could regress to the Stone Age if it interferes in anything against Iran. The other African countries hosting American bases are forced to live their vassalage and subservience to Washington in secret, while taking care never to allow a single strike on Iran from their respective territories. This is the price of vassalage and subservience.
The image of a paper tiger
Faced with this doctrinal shipwreck, Donald Trump’s political and diplomatic maneuvers amount to nothing more than the theatrical posturing of a powerless paper tiger. His media ultimatums and threats of secondary embargoes no longer fool any informed observer. Every impulsive decision from the White House aims solely to artificially delay the inevitable onset of irreversible hegemonic decline. American attempts to divide Eurasia in order to contain the CRIC bloc (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) are running up against an insurmountable wall. This solid multipolar alliance was undoubtedly structured around a shared imperative: to definitively eliminate Western unilateralism. Washington is multiplying its spectacular military posturing to reassure bewildered allies. This desperate posturing only accentuates the demonstration of its true weakness. American power no longer inspires fear. Its threats no longer deter the determined actors of the new global geopolitical order.
The consolidation of the CRIC bloc and the new world order
The West’s resounding failure in the Middle East is accelerating the definitive shift of the center of gravity of global politics toward Eurasia. China is securing its strategic energy supplies through long-term industrial and economic partnerships signed with Tehran. Russia is locking down the Eurasian space by providing high-precision space intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities. North Korea is bolstering the bloc’s ballistic missile arsenal with audacious strategic ambition. The political, economic, and military integration of the CRIC group is emerging as an unassailable geopolitical reality. Western financial sanctions have lost all coercive power in the face of the accelerated dedollarization of international trade. The Middle East is acting as the central catalyst for this major historical transition, sealing the ultimate defeat of the United States’ project of global hegemony. From Africa to Latin America, and from Asia to the Caribbean, peoples are self-determining, gradually turning away from the Western world, and joining forces with Eastern powers to build a hyper-powerful global South that constitutes a dynamic force on the world stage.
It is therefore clear that 2026 will be etched in history as the pivotal moment of absolute geopolitical rupture, where Washington’s doctrinal arrogance clashed with the realities on the ground and the determination of peoples resolved to dismantle the neocolonial order. America believed it could shape the world to its own liking. It finds itself trapped in a hasty and dishonorable retreat. Israel loses its historic status as an untouchable outpost. Saudi Arabia recognizes the futility of its strategic alliance with the United States. The strategic decline of the West is no longer a hypothetical scenario. It is now a fait accompli, undeniable and irreversible for the future of the multipolar order.
Mohamed Lamine KABA, Expert in the geopolitics of governance and regional integration, Institute of Governance, Human and Social Sciences, Pan-African University
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